Sign in
SF

Six Flags Entertainment Corporation/NEW (FUN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 net revenues were $687M, Adjusted EBITDA was $209M, Modified EBITDA margin reached 30.4%, and diluted EPS was -$2.76; versus Q4 2023, revenue rose ~85%, Adjusted EBITDA rose ~135%, and margin expanded 650 bps .
  • Attendance was 10.7M (+85% YoY), with in-park per capita spending of $61.60 and out-of-park revenues of $48M; management highlighted a record October and strong Halloween events as key drivers .
  • The company issued FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $1.08B–$1.12B and provided modeling items: operating days 5,852, CapEx $475M–$500M, D&A ≈$450M, cash interest $305M–$315M, and cash taxes $105M–$115M .
  • Early 2025 indicators: attendance +2% and season pass unit sales +3% in the first two fiscal months; management is targeting ~$70M remaining cost synergies (≈4% opex reduction) in 2025 .
  • Liquidity was $578M with net debt of $4.88B; portfolio optimization (including non-core assets and land near Richmond, VA) is under evaluation as a potential lever for value and deleveraging .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record seasonal performance: “Our strong fourth-quarter results reflect an outstanding October performance and the incredible popularity of our fall and Halloween themed events.” — CEO Richard A. Zimmerman .
  • Margin and synergy delivery: Modified EBITDA margin improved 650 bps to 30.4%, and ~$50M gross cost synergies were realized in 2024 (labor/ops, supply chain, overhead) .
  • Spending quality: In-park per capita rose 3% versus legacy Cedar Fair Q4 last year, with higher average transactions per guest (+3%) and robust demand for premium experiences .

What Went Wrong

  • Net loss and EPS impacted by non-operating items: Q4 provision for taxes was $210M (non-cash tax effects of restructuring), net interest expense rose to $79M (+$44M YoY), and net other expense was $27M (FX remeasurement) driving diluted EPS to -$2.76 .
  • Cost of goods sold pressure: COGS as a percentage of food/merch/games revenue increased 170 bps, largely from inclusion of legacy Six Flags operations .
  • 2025 risks: Management flagged potential FX headwinds of $7M–$8M on EBITDA and monitoring of California wildfire impacts at two high-EBITDA parks (Knott’s Berry Farm, Magic Mountain) .

Financial Results

Consolidated results: prior year, prior quarter, current quarter

MetricQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Net Revenues ($USD Millions)$371.1 $1,350.0 $687.3
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$28.8 —$51.1
Net (Loss) Income ($USD Millions)-$9.95 —-$264.2
Diluted EPS ($USD)——-$2.76
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$88.9 $558.0 $209.0
Modified EBITDA Margin (%)23.9% —30.4%

Revenue mix (Q4 2024 vs Q4 2023)

Revenue Line ($USD Millions)Q4 2023Q4 2024
Admissions$200.4 $360.6
Food, Merchandise & Games$120.7 $212.5
Accommodations, Extra-Charge & Other$50.1 $114.2
Total Net Revenues$371.1 $687.3

KPIs and operating metrics

KPIQ4 2023Q3 2024Q4 2024
Attendance (000s)5,776 21,000 10,694
Operating Days377 2,585 878
In-Park Per Capita ($)$59.59 $61.27 $61.60
Out-of-Park Revenues ($USD Millions)$36.9 $102.0 $47.8
Deferred Revenues (end of period, $USD Millions)$192.0 $359.0 (9/29/24) $308.0
Liquidity (Cash + Revolver, $USD Millions)—$743.0 (9/29/24) $578.0
Net Debt ($USD Millions)——$4,876.8

Non-GAAP notes: Adjusted/Modified EBITDA add back merger costs, non-cash FX, equity comp, retirements, and other items per credit agreement; Modified EBITDA margin uses net revenues as denominator .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Billions)FY 2025—$1.08 – $1.12 New issuance
Operating Days (count)FY 2025—5,852 New detail
CapEx ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$475 – $500 New detail
Depreciation & Amortization ($USD Millions)FY 2025—≈$450 New detail
Cash Interest ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$305 – $315 New detail
Cash Taxes ($USD Millions)FY 2025—$105 – $115 New detail
FX headwind (EBITDA impact)FY 2025—~$7 – $8 New detail
Cost Synergies (gross)FY 2025$120M run-rate by end-2025 (prior framework) ~$70M remaining in 2025 (≈4% opex reduction) Reiterated path/quantified remaining
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)Q4 2024$205 – $215 (issued in Nov.) Actual $209 Achieved within range

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 2024 and Q3 2024)Current Period (Q4 2024)Trend
Attendance & Season Pass MomentumEmphasis on closing gap in pass renewal/visitation; like-for-like Cedar attendance growth with fewer days; October up 20% YoY in portfolio Early 2025: attendance +2%, season pass units +3%; comfortably crowded strategy Improving
Cost Synergies & MarginsTarget $120M run-rate by end-2025; $50M expected by end-2024; margin lift from demand + efficiencies ~$50M realized in 2024; planning ~$70M remaining in 2025; 650 bps Q4 margin expansion Executing
Capital Program & InvestmentsTwo-year CapEx $500–$525M annually; marketable attractions + infrastructure split; All Park Passport introduced FY25 CapEx $475–$500M; 11 of 14 largest properties getting major attractions; DC Universe expansion at Fiesta Texas (Mar 1) Accelerating
Dynamic Pricing & MonetizationBI tools for dynamic pricing; no aggressive discounting; higher in-park spend and premium products Continue dynamic pricing; per caps supported by longer stays; some admissions per cap pressure with higher attendance mix Stable to positive
Operating Calendar OptimizationReduce low-value days; shift days to high-demand periods (fall) Add days in Q2/Q3; fewer in Q4; optimize hours; net higher-value days Positive mix shift
Macro/Weather/FX3 hurricanes impacted Q3; diversified footprint mitigates volatility Monitor CA wildfires; assume ~$7–$8M FX headwind to 2025 EBITDA Risk managed
Portfolio OptimizationLand/asset sales history; strategic review initiated Marketing land near Richmond; consider divesting smaller non-core parks Active evaluation
Systems HarmonizationRevenue synergies linked to ticketing/platform harmonization All Park Pass early adoption encouraging; harmonization in progress In progress

Management Commentary

  • “We ended the year as the new Six Flags on a high note, delivering on our goal of improving demand and increasing in-park guest spending levels, while operating our parks more efficiently.” — CEO Richard A. Zimmerman .
  • “Adjusted EBITDA… increased $120 million to $209 million, while modified EBITDA margin improved 650 basis points to 30.4%.” — CFO Brian Witherow .
  • “In 2025, we expect cash spend on capital expenditures will total $475 million to $500 million… and annualized cash interest payments… $305 million to $315 million… cash tax payments of $105 million to $115 million.” — CFO Brian Witherow .
  • “We are making progress toward realizing the remaining $70 million in anticipated cost synergies… representing a targeted 4% reduction in operating costs and expenses.” — CEO Richard A. Zimmerman .

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance framework: Midpoint assumes normal weather, neutral FX, no material CA wildfire impact; low/high ends flex with attendance and spend patterns .
  • Portfolio optimization: Evaluating non-core parks and excess land; Richmond, VA land marketing underway; intention to buy out partnership interests in Atlanta (Six Flags over Georgia) given attractive ROI .
  • Revenue synergies & All Park Pass: Early adoption encouraging but modest for 2025 given ongoing system harmonization; bigger attendance opportunity viewed as the main revenue driver .
  • Pricing/mix: Admissions per cap may face pressure with higher season-pass and group mix; focus on in-park monetization (food, premium experiences) and dynamic pricing .
  • Calendar strategy: More days added in Q2/Q3, fewer in Q4; shift to higher-value periods and longer hours to optimize EBITDA per day .

Estimates Context

S&P Global/Capital IQ consensus estimates for Q4 2024 were unavailable at time of analysis due to access limits on the data source. As a result, we cannot assess Street beats/misses versus consensus for revenue or EPS at this time. Values would ordinarily be retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes and Strategic Press Releases

  • FY2025 Adjusted EBITDA guidance: $1.08B–$1.12B; Investor Day set for May 20, 2025 at Cedar Point .
  • Two-year investment plan: “Six Flags to Invest More Than $1 Billion Over the Next Two Years… including seven new roller coasters” and All Park Passport add-on launched (Nov 14, 2024) .
  • Product activation: Largest DC Universe themed area opening at Six Flags Fiesta Texas on March 1, 2025, with three new rides and expanded theming (supports season-pass value and regional demand) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Q4 results showcased strong demand and operating execution, with revenue +85% YoY and Adjusted EBITDA +135% YoY; margin expansion reflects both synergy capture and in-park monetization momentum .
  • FY2025 outlook is ambitious: Adjusted EBITDA $1.08B–$1.12B with robust CapEx and major attractions at 11 of 14 top parks; near-term catalysts include Investor Day (May 20) and spring season openings .
  • Balance sheet remains leveraged (net debt ~$4.88B); active portfolio optimization and land monetization could support deleveraging and capital returns over time .
  • Attendance-driven strategy implies some admissions per cap pressure but higher total revenue/EBITDA via longer stays and premium experiences; BI-led dynamic pricing should protect yield .
  • Watch risks: FX (~$7–$8M EBITDA headwind in 2025) and any lingering demand effects from CA wildfires at Knott’s/Magic Mountain; management is closely monitoring and adjusting calendars .
  • Early 2025 indicators are positive (attendance +2%, pass units +3%), supporting the near-term narrative of demand resilience and synergy-driven margin progression .
  • The narrative that moves the stock near-term: delivery against the $70M remaining synergies, attendance acceleration into peak season, visible returns from the 2025 capital slate, and clarity at Investor Day on long-term free cash flow and deleveraging path .